Inventory 8/13

The EIA reported U.S. propane inventories increased 3.873 million
barrels for the week ending August 8. Industry analysts were
expecting a 2.33-million-barrel build. Over the last five years
inventory had increased 1.375 million barrels during week 32 of the
year. Propane prices were slightly down before the report but inched
higher post report despite the large build. This build ended a string
of builds that were below expectations and even a surprise July draw.

Ready-for sale (RFS) propane inventories increased 3.567 million
barrels. RFS inventories are now 60.9% of the total inventory from
59.5% last week. Inventories upstream of the fractionators that are
part of a mix of NGLs called Y-grade increased 306,000 barrels.

Propane production was down 26,000 bpd to 2.849 million bpd.
Propane imports were down 17,000 bpd to 84,000 bpd. Combined
propane supply was down 43,000 bpd. Domestic propane demand
was down 88,000 bpd to 717,000 bpd. Propane exports were down
327,000 bpd to 1.664 million bpd. Combined demand was down
415,000 bpd. In total it was a positive 372,000 bpd impact on U.S.
propane supply resulting in a 552,000 bpd build in inventory
compared to a 180,000 bpd build the previous week.

Department of Energy Water Heater Final Rule

On December 26, 2024, the Department of Energy released its Final Rule: Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Gas-fired Instantaneous Water Heaters. The rule would deprive consumers of energy choice, and would eliminate a product class of non-condensing tankless water heaters from the market. NPGA, along with coalition partners, have been engaged with this rule continuously, and commented on multiple proposals, and continuously sought meetings with the Department of Energy and other Federal agencies. NPGA was successful in delaying this rule for months, but DOE persisted in published a rule in the waning days of the administration. NPGA has vigorously challenged all DOE actions aimed at eliminating non-condensing appliances, including filing a lawsuit in Federal Court. NPGA and its coalition are currently examining options in response to its release. For further information, please contact Vice President of Regulatory and Industry Affairs Benjamin Nussdorf.

Inventory 1/8/2025

Propane down despite inventory draw
The EIA reported U.S. propane inventories declined 2.455 million
barrels for the week ending January 3. Industry analysts were
expecting a 2.78-million-barrel draw. Over the last five years inventory
has declined 1.967 million barrels during week 53/1 of the year.

Propane production was down 23,000 bpd to 2.670 million bpd.
Propane imports were down 12,000 bpd to 134,000 bpd. Combined
propane supply was down 35,000 bpd. Domestic propane demand was
up 607,000 bpd to 1.436 million bpd. Propane exports were down
370,000 bpd to 1.719 million bpd. Combined demand was up 237,000
bpd. In total it was a negative 272,000 bpd impact on U.S. propane
supply resulting in a 351,000 bpd draw on inventory compared to a
79,000 bpd draw the previous week.

The inventory draw was in line with expectation but larger than
average for the week reported. Inventories remain above last year and
the five-year average.

Crude turns lower
Crude started the day moving higher hitting $75.29, just 19¢ below the 200-day moving price average. A couple of things seemed to turn crude lower. First was a light draw on crude inventories but very large builds of better than 6 million barrels each for gasoline and distillate inventories.

Perhaps more impactful was strong dollar and a report that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency so he can provide legal grounds for universal tariffs. Ultimately WTI closed at $73.32 which put it below its rising 5-day moving price average. It was the first close below the 5-day since December 27.